Soccer consultants give you betting ideas, the media publishes the most recent information concerning the opponent groups and their key gamers, bookmakers help a whole bunch of betting strategies. Nonetheless, once you lastly place your large wager on a certain favourite, that is the time to begin praying. Sadly, the world of soccer betting is sort of unpredictable. There are literally thousands of components taking part in towards us. How can we minimize our betting losses? The one strategy to do it’s through the use of cash administration methods. This text summarizes the strategies and techniques of betting cash administration and supplies a statistical comparability of their efficiency primarily based on betting odds and match outcomes of prime European leagues.
The commonest betting cash administration methods in our days are: Martingale, Row of numbers and Kelly criterion. Whereas the primary two don’t require any prior data, Kelly criterion requires the punter to know the chance of a win.
Definitions
Earlier than presenting the efficiency evaluation, a short description of the above-mentioned methods is important:
— Martingale technique means doubling the stack after a loss and returning again to the beginning stack after a win. This technique is the most well-liked in the present day and guarantees optimistic earnings, however requires intensive cash investments.
— Row of numbers means planning a collection of fixed earnings. Given betting odds, the punter calculates every stake in a manner that may permit him to make the deliberate revenue. In case he loses, he ought to enhance the following stack in such a manner the revenue will return each the cash already misplaced and the deliberate earnings for the misplaced video games. This technique is much less aggressive than Martingale however nonetheless harmful.
— Kelly criterion: mathematically confirmed to be the very best technique in the long term. Nonetheless, it requires figuring out the chance of a win. The stacks are calculated in proportion of the dimensions of your funds and in line with the relation between the chance of a win and the betting odds. When chance and odds are excessive, a excessive stack can be positioned and vice versa.
Knowledge and Strategies
With a view to consider the efficiency of every technique, we analyzed the betting odds set by bookmakers for the highest European leagues. Think about that bookmakers are punters who place a stake on a favourite with minimal betting odds. One can simply estimate the chance of a win by dividing the typical variety of house/draw/away outcomes by the full variety of video games in a season.
The betting odds and outcomes are taken from the 4 European prime leagues taking part in within the 2008/2009 season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1 and Spanish Primera Division.
Abstract
— The outcomes present that Kelly criterion is the very best cash administration technique of the three with a median revenue of +5% in comparison with +1% (Row) and +1.2% (Martingale).
— Essentially the most worthwhile was the French Ligue 1 with a betting revenue of +22% (Kelly), +9% (Row) and +10% (Martingale).
— The least worthwhile was the English Premier League with a betting loses of -10% (Kelly) ), -9% (Row) and -8% (Martingale).
